PUTRAJAYA: There is a more than 90% chance of a “Super El Nino” occurring between October and December, which will result in hotter and drier conditions, states the meteorological department (MetMalaysia).
Its director-general Hisham Anip said the forecast was based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) since the middle of the year, coupled with recent weekly observations showing sea surface temperatures more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average.
“This situation indicates that El Nino is continuing to strengthen and is expected to peak towards the end of 2026.
“Based on the latest forecasts from international climate models, the probability of El Nino reaching the very strong category between October and December 2026 is high, at more than 90%,” he told Bernama.
Hisham said current global climate patterns indicated that the 2026–2027 El Nino could rank among the most extreme events ever recorded, with its impact potentially exceeding or at least matching that of the very strong El Nino episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
The highest temperature recorded during the 1997–1998 El Nino episode was 40.1 degrees Celsius in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998, while the 2015–2016 episode saw 39.3 degrees Celsius recorded in Jerantut, Pahang, on April 10, 2016.
“Based on the patterns of previous episodes and the effects of global warming in recent years, the temperature increase this time is expected to be more pronounced from February to May next year.”
Hisham said the strong El Nino is also expected to occur alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), potentially intensifying the reduction in rainfall across the region.
